Football fans worldwide witnessed a magical 2nd half of the 2024 season for Dak Prescott. Through the last ten weeks of the season, Prescott averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game on 288 passing yards and around three touchdowns a week. This stretch was good for six top-three finishes amongst quarterbacks. The Cowboys’ offense was known for slinging the rock, ranking fourth in early down passing rates as Prescott led the NFL in touchdown passes and yards. This was all with Tony Pollard receiving the seventh most rushes by any running back, accumulating 1,005 yards.
Another prospect that lingers around Prescott’s future is that 2024 is the final year of his 4-year $160 million contract. He will be a free agent after this season, meaning he could get a huge payday if he maintains this production. Prescott's value for fantasy football is hinged on his current ADP. Prescott is projected to be drafted early in the 8th round in most leagues, which gives him tremendous upside. While guys like Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, and Jalen Hurts seem to present more boom potential, why should you wait and take Prescott in the mid-late rounds?
Coming off a Career Year
As stated, Prescott saw a career year statistically, leading Dallas to another playoff appearance. His MVP-caliber year saw him finish as the QB3 in fantasy scoring. His 36-touchdown year while also appearing in every game. He proved his reliability, which has been consistent throughout his career, other than the brutal leg fracture that caused him to miss most of the 2020 season.
Prescott has started 65 of 83 potential games in his career. You have got to believe that Prescott will have added motivation to perform, considering that he is due for a massive payday after this season. Prescott says he is focused on the present and loves any situation where he must bet on himself.
Prescott also saw a massive decline in his turnover rate in 2023, living up to his promise of throwing less than ten interceptions. He has also had a 6.1% touchdown rate and has been at 6% for the past three years. Prescott is noted to be one of the best pure passers in the league, and his 69.5% completion percentage and 105.9 passer rating prove this.
Despite coach Mike McCarthy proclaiming that he wanted to run the ball and play defense, Dallas finished with a 61% neutral game scrip pass rate. They also had the second-fastest pace, averaging just over 25 seconds in between snaps. He benefits greatly from a heavy pass offense, which brings up my next point.
Depleted Backfield
McCarthy’s wishes for the offense to run the ball consistently did not go as planned, as Dallas relied on the passing game more than anything. They still tried to force-feed the ball to Tony Pollard, as he finished with 252 carries in the 2023 season. Pollard also only saw the endzone six times, with only 4 of them coming after week 1. Well, Pollard has departed from Dallas and joined the Tennessee Titans this offseason, leaving Dallas with a huge question mark in the backfield.
They combatted the departure of Pollard by bringing Ezekiel Elliott back for a second go-round. While Elliott has done great things with Dallas throughout his career, he seems to have passed his prime. Elliott was let go after the 2022 season because he did not seem to have much left to offer to the team, and now he is back, and they plan on giving him plenty of carries in this committee approach.
Elliott has lost most of the bursts that he has shown in the early stages of his career, and his overall efficiency has decreased significantly since 2022. With the Patriots in 2023, he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. The Cowboys just seem like they will lack a rushing offense in 2024, and the offense will be pretty one-dimensional. Now, while this may not be good for Dallas’ overall chances of making a Super Bowl run, it does raise Prescott's floor for this season.
Prescott and Ceedee Lamb are both due to be free agents in 2025; Dallas will look to utilize them as much as possible this season. And with an unreliable rushing offense, Dallas will have to rely on their bread and butter. I envision Prescott’s floor being somewhere around 4,400 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.
I just don’t see how this offense is going to run the ball effectively, which leaves Prescott's arm as the only reliable option if they want to keep up with the other forces in both their division and the NFC.
Great ADP and Stack Potential
Prescott is slated to go in the middle-to-late rounds in fantasy drafts. While other options seem more feasible because of the rushing upside, I believe that Dak will end up working out for you if you stay patient. Prescott is one of the best reasons for staying patient when drafting a quarterback and filling up other spots on your roster.
I believe that he will give around 95% of the same production as guys going in the first three or four rounds, and you can get him in the eighth round. As I said, his floor is high, so I envision he will be consistent throughout the season, and the Cowboys’ game script gives him tremendous upside.
One more thing to note is that Prescott will spend the majority of his time delivering the ball to Ceedee Lamb. In 2023, Lamb was targeted 181 times while averaging 103 yards per game. He averaged almost 11 targets per game, and I don’t expect this number to go down anytime soon. I am telling you this because Prescott could be a great pick in the eighth round if you have drafted Lamb with your first pick.
This stack could put up video game numbers this year, allowing you to feast from their production. Stacking Prescott and Lamb will create nightmares for your opponents, as they could be the best QB-WR duo in fantasy football.
Conclusion
Overall, Prescott's high floor and volume make him a phenomenal candidate for your quarterback position in fantasy football. With Dallas relying on an older Ezekiel Elliott, it just seems like they will be forced to use the passing game virtually more than any other team in the NFL. Lamb is not the only option, with Dallas returning guys like Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson.
They have some good weapons on offense that I believe will help Prescott reach his full potential. With him also “betting on himself,” I believe Prescott is due for another monster year that will make him a top 5 option at quarterback in 2024 fantasy football.
